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作者：智堡Wisburg 原創作者
來源：2022年5月美聯儲FOMC議息會議筆記：塵埃落定
首次發表時間：2022年5月5號04:14:50
Mikko的摘要
– 50個基點的加息以及3個月加速至950億/月規模的縮表塵埃落定。
– 市場一度被鮑威爾對通脹的嚴厲修辭嚇一跳（“attentive”、“much too high”），但隨後鮑威爾消除了市場的顧慮，明確表示委員會未考慮75bp幅度的加息。
– 市場藉由對75bp加息的否定而舞動起了鴿派大旗，不能再“鷹”構成了風險資產最重要的信心提振來源。
– 資產價格表現上，風險資產在聲明公佈後小幅下跌，發布會時因鮑叔的通脹措辭而進一步下跌（幾乎就是much too high蹦出來的瞬間），隨後在鮑叔證偽75bp加息後快速上漲。
– 鮑威爾補充了未來我們觀察聯儲走向的數據基準——職位空缺率以及失業率（貝弗里奇曲線的變化）。本週五的非農數據將是我們觀察鮑叔判斷的新進數據。
– 對於衰退，鮑威爾表現出了對經濟軟著陸的極大自信，認為當前看不到經濟衰退。
– 目前我們處於一個奇妙的“甜蜜點”，鷹派預期已經隨著加息縮表的塵埃落定而消亡，而市場擔心的衰退敘事仍未實質性展開。
本次議息會議發布會是兩年來首次從線上轉為線下，鮑叔面對記者時顯得游刃有餘。消除了在線會議的那種距離感以後，政策溝通上語氣平穩，體態自然。
市場表現
股票：先跌後漲
美元、美債：先漲後跌
黃金、比特幣：先跌後漲
原油：一直保持強勢
變盤點：75bp證偽
聲明原文
Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and business fixed investment remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.
儘管美國整體經濟活動在今年一季度有所下滑，但家庭支出和企業固定投資仍然表現強勁。近幾個月來，就業崗位增長紮實，失業率已經大幅下降。通貨膨脹水平仍然處於高位，反映了與疫情有關的供需失衡、能源價格上漲以及更為廣泛的價格壓力。
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the US economy are highly uncertain. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵正在造成巨大的人道與經濟困難。這對美國經濟的影響是非常不確定的。入侵和相關事件正在對通貨膨脹造成額外的上升壓力，並可能對經濟活動產生影響。此外，中國的疫情封控可能會加劇供應鏈的破壞。委員會高度關注著通脹風險。
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with this statement.
委員會尋求在長期內實現最大（充分）就業和2%的通脹目標。隨著貨幣政策立場的適當收緊，委員會預計通貨膨脹將回到2%的目標，勞動力市場將保持強勁。為了支持這些目標，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率的目標區間提高到0.75%-1%（加息50bps），並預計利率目標區間的持續提高將是適當的。此外，委員會決定在6月1日開始減少其持有的國債、機構債務以及MBS，正如與本聲明公告同時發布的《縮減美聯儲資產負債表規模的計劃》中所述。
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
在評估貨幣政策的適當立場時，委員會將繼續監測收到的新進信息對經濟前景的影響。如果出現可能阻礙委員會目標實現的風險，委員會將準備酌情調整貨幣政策的立場。委員會的評估將考慮到廣泛的信息，包括對公共衛生、勞動力市場狀況、通貨膨脹壓力和通貨膨脹預期以及金融和國際發展的解讀。
縮表細節《縮減美聯儲資產負債表規模的計劃》
根據2022年1月發布的《縮減美聯儲資產負債表規模的原則》，委員會所有參與者都同意以下大幅削減美聯儲證券持有量的計劃。
委員會打算在一段時間內以可預測的方式減少美聯儲的證券持有量，主要是通過調整從系統公開市場賬戶（SOMA）中持有的證券本金償付後的再投資金額。自6月1日起，從SOMA中持有的證券的本金償付將在超過每月上限（caps）的前提下進行再投資。
對於國債，最初的上限將被設定為每月300億美元，三個月後將增加到每月600億美元。在此月度上限下，國債持有量的下降將涵蓋票息美債，如果當月到期的票息債低於所設定的月度上限，則涵蓋短期美債。
對於機構債務和MBS，最初的上限將設定為每月175億美元，三個月後將增加到每月350億美元。
隨著時間的推移，委員會打算將證券持有量保持在其充裕的準備金制度中高效並有效地執行貨幣政策所需的數額。
為了確保平穩過渡，委員會打算在準備金水平略高於其判斷的與充足準備金相一致的水平時，減緩並停止資產負債表規模的下降。
一旦資產負債表停止縮表，準備金可能會繼續下降一段時間，反映出其他美聯儲負債項目的增長，直到委員會判斷其準備金處於充足的水平。
此後，委員會將根據需要來管理證券持有量，以在一段時間內保持充足的準備金。
委員會隨時準備好根據經濟和金融的發展情況調整其縮減資產負債表規模的方法的任何細節。
發布會要點
#1 有關通脹問題，鮑威爾兩次提及“much too high”，聲明中新出現的“attentive”亦重申了通脹的嚴重性，風險資產在鮑威爾蹦出“much too high”以後嚇得不輕，應聲下行。
The labor market is extremely tight, and inflation is much too high.
Inflation is much too high, and we understand the hardship it is causing.
勞動力市場極其緊張，通貨膨脹率太高了。
通貨膨脹率太高了，我們理解它所造成的困難。
#2 有關75bp加息，鮑威爾消除了市場的顧慮，明確表示委員會未考慮75bp幅度的加息，這也是發布會對風險資產最重要的信心提振來源。市場藉由75bp的否定而舞動起了鴿派大旗。
There is a broad sense on the committee that additional 50 basis point increases should be on the table at the next couple of meetings.
75 basis point increase is not something the committee is actively considering.
委員會普遍認為在接下來的幾次會議上應該加息50個基點。
75個基點的加息不是委員會正在積極考慮的問題。
#3 有關美國經濟的供需問題，鮑威爾的表述一以貫之，明確表態聯儲無力影響供應端，聯儲將俄烏事件和中國的風控視為自己無力控制的外部因素，而因此只能著眼於“需求”。
Our tools don’t work on supply shocks, our tools work on demand……there is a job to do on demand.
我們的工具無法應對供給衝擊，我們的工具是針對經濟需求的……，針對需求我們有很多工作要做。
#4 聯儲是怎樣考慮目前的供需平衡問題的？鮑威爾給出了一個明確的指標和理論框架，即職位空缺率及貝弗里奇曲線。鮑威爾認為，未來就業市場的參與率會逐步提升，但是就業人數增長會放緩，進而導致失業率出現小幅向上。新進的勞動力供給以及放緩的經濟（僱傭需求）將逐步降低職位空缺率，進而降低薪資和通脹壓力，使得經濟重新回到一個平衡狀態，達到軟著陸。
I would say that I expect and committee members generally expect that we will get additional participation, so people will be coming back into the labor force, we have seen that particularly among prime age people, and that will of course tend to hold the unemployment rate up a little bit. I would expect though that job creation will slow, job creation has been at more than a half million per month in recent months, very very strong, particularly for this stage of the economy. And so we think with fiscal policy less supportive, monetary policy less supportive we think job creation will slow as well.
我想說的是，我預期，委員會的成員們也普遍預期，勞動參與率會提升，所以人們將回到勞動力隊伍中，我們已經看到，特別是在壯齡人中，這當然會使失業率上升一點。但我預計，就業崗位（非農）的創造將放緩，近幾個月來，非農每月超過50萬，非常非常強勁，特別是對於經濟的這個階段而言。因此，我們認為隨著財政政策的支持力度減弱，貨幣政策的支持力度減弱，我們認為就業創造也會放緩。
……more people coming back in, we like to think that supply and demand will come back into balance, and that therefore, wage inflation will moderate to still high levels of wage increases, but ones that are more consistent with 2 percent inflation.
……很多人回歸了就業崗位，我們認為供應和需求將恢復平衡，因此，工資通脹將緩和至仍然相對偏高的增長水平，但與2%的通脹率更為一致。
there is a path by which we would be able to have demand moderate in the labor market, and have therefore vacancies come down without unemployment going up because vacancies are at such a extraordinarily high level, they are 1.9 vacancies for every unemployed person, 11 and a half million vacancies, six million unemployed people.
有一條道路，我們將能平抑勞動力市場的需求使之更為溫和，並推低職位空缺率而不引發失業率的上升，因為職位空缺處於非常高的水平，每一個失業者對應1.9個職位空缺，有1150萬的職位空缺，600萬的失業者。
In principle, it seems as though by moderating demand, we could see vacancies come down, and as a result, they could come down fairly significantly, and I think put supply and demand closer together than they are at least, and that would give us a chance to have lower, to get inflation, wages down, and get inflation down, without having to slow the economy and have a recession, and have unemployment rise materially. There is a path to that.
原則上，似乎通過緩和需求，我們可以看到職位空缺率的下降……大幅下降，我認為倘若我們使供應和需求至少比現在更接近，這將使我們有機會降低……使通貨膨脹，工資下降，而不引致經濟的放緩，出現衰退，使失業率大幅上升。是有這麼一條路可走的。
One is, households and businesses are in strong financial shape, you are looking at excess savings on balance sheets, excess in the sense that they are substantially larger than the prior trend, businesses are in good financial shape. The labor market is very very strong, and so it doesn’t seem to be anywhere close to a downturn.
需要指出的是，家庭和企業的財務狀況很好，我們能看到的是私人部門資產負債表上的超額儲蓄，超額的意思是它們比以前的趨勢要大得多，企業的財務狀況很好。勞動力市場非常非常強勁，因此，我們看起來距離經濟下行還很遠。
#5 對於經濟衰退，鮑威爾目前認為概率很低。
And the labor market, if you look at the labor market for people who are out of work and looking, there are lots of job opportunities, for wages are moving up, and at rates that haven’t been seen in a long time. It is a good time to be a worker looking to either change jobs or get a wage increase in your current job. It’s a strong economy. Nothing about it suggests that it’s close to or vulnerable to a recession.
As I said, I think we have a good chance to restore price stability without a recession, without a severe downturn and without materially higher unemployment.
看看勞動力市場，如果你看一下失業率和在找工作的人，有很多工作機會，因為工資正在上升，而且是在很長一段時間內沒有看到的上升速度。對於工人而言現在是一個很好的光景，換工作加薪都是如此。經濟很強，沒有任何跡象表明它接近衰退。
正如我所說的，我認為我們有一個很好的機會來恢復價格穩定，而不招致經濟衰退，不會出現嚴重的經濟下行，也不會出現實質性的高失業率。
